HRSA projections estimate that the shortage of full-time registered nurses (RNs) is projected to peak in 2027 and continue until 2035 — the first year where the supply of RNs is estimated to meet the national demand. As of 2023, the supply of registered nurses in the U.S. is 3,313,320 while the total demand is 3,369,610, equal to a 98% adequacy rate.
While these projections suggest that the nursing shortage could end on a national scale by 2035, regional estimates show that nursing shortages may last significantly longer in certain states.
The Health Workforce Simulation Model (HWSM) sought to assess the adequacy of the nation’s workforce supply to meet the current and expected future demand. The simulation model assumes many historical patterns that impact attrition and graduation would remain the same during the forecasted period. Since the HWSM uses data from 2020, the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the profession won’t be fully estimated until data is gathered and used in the model.
However, historical data does not account for the growing number of Baby Boomers reaching retirement age, which typically is associated with an increase in chronic disease and the subsequent need for healthcare services.
